Monday, January 30, 2012
keith vs doug on the dollar
The question as to wether the equity market prefers a strong dollar or a weak dollar cant be answered with charts and historical correlations. The answer to the question lies in the stages of the economic cycle that we are currently in. Three years ago the market expected a strong fed response to the recession. The weak dollar that resulted from an easy fed was welcomed, not solely as a boon to exports, but also as a prop to any asset denominated in dollars. After three years of an inversely correlated stock/dollar relationship, the market now needs to see some results. At this point in the cycle, the u.s. must graduate to a preferred destination point for global investors or else the market may lose confidence. So both keith and doug can be partially correct dependant on where we are in the economic cycle. My interpretation is closer to keiths and i think a strong dollar would reflect strength in the u.s. economy and should be welcomed by the market with 1 caveat. If the only reason for dollar strength is a deteriorating euro then it may not be interpreted as a good thing...the dollar must also do well vs other currencies at the same time..
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Excellent risk management thoughts Jimmy. The key to modelling (and managing risk around) correlation risk is embracing uncertainty.
ReplyDeleteCorrelations are not perpetual. On the margin, they can be highly influenced by policy.
That's why understanding where we are in both the economic and policy cycles is critical.
KM
all excellent points...and they are both "honorable men". the $USD is being turned into a "carry trade" currency by the manipulation of the yield curve by the liberal bernank wing of the fed. the current strength must be attributed to the eurozone delusions, i.e., Portugal rates @ 15%...the PIIGS and their delusional thinking of debt repayment through fiscal auterity will only lead to further erosion of confidence in the zone and its currency. when the $USD strengthens against the aussie...yen...canadian$...all the materials plays. As you said the USD rises against these other currencies the $USD is false promises for growth.
ReplyDeleteagreed on all of that particularly the "honorable men" part. i only listen to a handful of people in our biz, they are 2 of them...
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