Wednesday, January 4, 2012

markets and politics

the interesting thing about todays trade is the further evidence of  decoupling of u.s. equity markets and europe...the euro got hammered today and equity markets scratched out a small gain...my objective in the euro is  around 127.40ish...the decoupling has to be good news for stocks, as we can concentrate on the domestic recovery and pay less attention to euro-headlines...gold continues to do well ,and this is understandable, as the fundamental argument for strength has never changed...all roads seem to lead to a weaker euro(and probably a weaker dollar as
well)..there was a huge call buyer today in iag(iamgold) which supports the general theme.....the next thing that needs to happen is to convince ourselves that tying up 10 year money at 1.99 in treasuries is a poor use of our cash...the exit from bonds should,however, be a bit more orderly than some other shakeouts, due to the composition of ownership(fed owns tons of bonds)....best positions should be ; long stocks, long gold, short bonds ,short euro..although i welcome the positive direction of the u.s. economy there is an obvious down side..if we can sustain the small amount of strength for the next 10 months it probably condemns us to sluggish growth for the next four years with stifling over regulation and unclear corporate tax structure. i seriously hope i'm wrong there and i admittedly dont know a tremendous amount about rick santorum as i never really gave him a chance prior to today.hopefully he's our guy....have a great day...jim

2 comments:

  1. I am long U.S. dollar, health care, tech, small cap and consumer discretionary stocks, as well as investment grade and high yield corp bonds. Planning to fund long positions by trimming treasuries, staples and utilities. Financials, industrials, materials still underweight. Neutral on energy.

    As for politics, I disagree with you completely.

    Happy Blogging!!!

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  2. we are mostly on the same page...with a few glaring exceptions ha...thanks for the view

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