Sunday, January 8, 2012

market for monday and my shrinking dad

20 years ago my dad and i stood roughly the same height. As 65 turned into 85 i became a solid 3 inches taller than him. As iuorio's arent that tall to begin with you should understand that 3 inches is a big percentage...Anyway, it would be stupid, of course, if my friends and family talked about how much taller i've become, as my dad obviously shrunk a bit....stick with me, i promise there is a point here....Its the same flawed rational that has lead people to talk about the fantastic gains in the u.s. dollar...There have been almost no gains in the u.s. dollar relative to anything else beside the euro(and maybe a little bit of the sterling).. If you need any proof of this look at charts(priced in dollars) of corn, wheat, canadian dollar , yen, aussie...etc...ps..some day i will be computer savy enough to include those charts in the blog but sadly today in not that day...All that being said, im currently not positive what that information means to the way we trade, but i have this nagging feeling that its going to be important soon...It probably is an endorsement of gold, however...I covered some of my euro shorts on friday because i thought it was do for a bounce, so far no bounce..There is a distinct and well defined trendline that the euro will be coming in contact with tomorrow and i still believe it will hold, but i'm becoming less certain.. We should revisit that topic tomorrow.....I tweeted on friday that it was becoming less attractive to be short volatility and i was gonna cover some..I think the lesson here is that when the vix gets to around 20ish the "reward " portion of the risk reward equation becomes less worth it...Now i will probably establish some cheap call packages that kick in if vol explodes....Last week i thought treasury yields were going to move higher and so far iv been mostly wrong..For this reason i think that some of the trades that people turned their backs on, over the last 2 weeks have become more attractive as money seeks yield...I will look at utilities and maybe some tobacco...Anyone who has been reading my stuff for awhile knows about the red-neck 20 stock index which is a work in progress but includes my favorite market joke mo+mcd=bmy..i know that when you have to explain a joke that means its a bad joke so i will just hope you get it(it involves plavix...at least i think thats the name of the heart med)...i am looking for additional stocks that will do well over the long run as america continues to its path toward red neck and i need your help...obvious names like coke, smith and wesson , corn products international(make hfcs) jump to mind, but together i think we can refine the index...have a great night and remember god wants the broncos to win...jim

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