notes for tomorrow

The longer the vix stays below 20 the more prone we become to a sharp correction. For this reason i am becoming more cautious and adding to my long position in vol. That being said, there remains nothing on the
technical side that makes me think that the rally is done yet, and there are a couple of things i may look at buying tomorrow. If msft trades 29.75 i will look at increasing my long position. I like msft for a few reasons and not least among them is the association with facebook. Of course i had to say facebook somewhere in these notes...however,both my teenage daughters have told me that the tide is turning from facebook to twitter and although this is pretty anecdotal, iv traded on that before and made some money..But, for now anyway, all things facebook could do pretty well.....The market believes a name like msft represents safety and this becomes more important with the weak numbers that were released today.  BMY seems like it has to fill a gap down in the low 31's but i will probably look to buy it there or sell some puts..If SO shows strength tomorrow i will look at putting on some longs there as well. Yesterday i released a note talking about the dangers of the feds new "transparency" policy but i'm convinced the message needs repeating with more emphasis on how detrimental the policy may turn out to be. The fed has made known that its intention is to keep rates on hold till 2015. The market has interpreted this message to mean that rates WILL be on hold until 2015. It is a huge and illogical jump to think
that anyone has the ability to predict,with accuracy how the economy will do in 3 months let alone 3 years. If we list who the best predictors of  future economic condition are, the fed would not make the list.So all thats happened is fed has forced the market to one side of the boat opening the door to a much larger correction at the first sign of a fed misjudgement... Potential for "fed misjudgement" is the main reason i still like gold and silver. Both of those charts still look constructive but you could make the argument that the gold rally is a bit steep...have a great night...jim  ps trades are not a recommendation they are just what i am thinking about for discussion purposes