Friday, February 17, 2012
greece follow @jimiuorio
My partner just asked me, are we supposed to go home short the euro in case something breaks over the weekend? I think the short answer is yes ,i suppose we should,but its not quite the layup it once was. If you are wondering if greece is going to default all you have to do is look at the greek 1 yr and 2 yr and you should realize that the time for that speculation is pretty much over and all thats left is narrowing down the time frame. That being said the euro is slightly higher, equities are slightly higher which leads me to believe that the market is fully prepared and no longer sweats it. That seems crazy to me and i believe there should be a bit more concern regarding the unintended consequences of the default and for that reason i will remain short the euro. On a another note, my guess is that the ecb is not gonna give a penny more to greece. If they were going to, would they have really made an argument about 300 million in additional cuts? thats a rounding error of a rounding error. My gut tells me that time is being bought until the ecb can be satisfied that all the proper ring fences are put in place. That, of course, is different than actually having them in place....thoughts???
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Jim, there are so many cross currents and the market is as flighty as I have ever seen it....however, I would say the potential for real Euro strengh is limited to 1 or 2 cents. If something goes wrong (or right, depending) the bottom could fall out. There is no predicting the market, however.....I am having trouble understanding why it is wher it is today and why gold is not higher as well as the ECB id now doing its version of QE1. Have a happy prez day!
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