The market is going through a temporary bout of insanity, wherein it believes that the latest round of greek bailout money has taken care of the problems. This will surprise no one, but, i do not agree. However, i do respect the markets decision and i believe that the euro has more room to run on the upside, my current target is around 136.00. That being said, i am not going long the euro, as a matter of fact, i am going to keep some small shorts on as it provides a little protection against my long equity positions. If i am correct and the euro continues higher, i plan on using big up moves as opportunities to put on long dated, out of the money, put packages that are cheap, but will explode in value in the event of a dramatic euro decline.
I remain a bear of long end treasuries and i have been increasing my long position in tbt, incrementally, as the ten year takes out support levels. The next objective and support level i have in ten year futures is around 130.00. The fundamental argument for higher rates is that there appears to be better uses for money than what bonds are offering plus i would not be surprised if we start to see some hints of inflation. The prices paid component of one of the ism release i found to be mildly troubling and, although, i am still not "all in" on my ten year shorts, i am comfortable with the position.
Now on to gold. Whats not to like?? that concludes my take on gold.
Tomorrow i will probably increase my long vol positions as it is just too cheap and ,although i remain an equity bull, the rally is getting a little long in the tooth. As i have said on twitter many times, i like mcd and yum as my 2 favorite current picks. As always, nothing above is a recommendation and is only meant for discussion purposes..have a great night...oh one more thing..on twitter yesterday someone called me an "asshat". It was a proud moment for me and i felt like i had arrived in some way...Any attention is good attention...
Thanks Jim. I agree, this run is nuts. How much further do you think the S&P can run before we get a pullback?
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