I think its important to take a big step back in order to get perspective on the situation in europe. The ecb continues to go to extraordinary lengths to avoid a greek default. Greece is a tiny country with an tiny economy and based on that should be insignificant
in the global economy. The fact that it isnt insignificant, is strong evidence of the pervading weakness thats spread throughout the eurozone. So much weakness that the ecb doesnt think it could withstand a default from an economy smaller than at least 20 states in
the u.s. For these reasons i see no point to being anything but short the euro. I try to increase my shorts on big euro up days, but i suspect those days will become less prevalent going forward. That being said, i am not necessarily bearish u.s. equities but i have become very cautious and will scrutinize every down move to determine
if it is the much needed correction. I continue to increase long exposure to vxx. I usually do that by selling the etf and buying a disproportionately higher number of out of the money calls. I do this to try to combat the decay element of the etf thats due to the roll up
in the underlying futures contracts (if anyone wants a further explanation please ask).Natgas is beginning to look attractive and although i would rather cut off my thumbs than be long that pig ung i do think there are decent ways to play it in the exploration and
distribution space. I am long rgp(regency energy). Mcd bounced of a trend line and 50 day ma today and i find that encouraging so i will stay with longs there as well. For tomorrow,as i said before i am on high alert for the correction. If the sp futures stay above 1329 i
will stay reasonably confident and continue to look for good bets in individual names. But if that level gives i may get out of everything and get short. have a great night jim
the u.s. For these reasons i see no point to being anything but short the euro. I try to increase my shorts on big euro up days, but i suspect those days will become less prevalent going forward. That being said, i am not necessarily bearish u.s. equities but i have become very cautious and will scrutinize every down move to determine
if it is the much needed correction. I continue to increase long exposure to vxx. I usually do that by selling the etf and buying a disproportionately higher number of out of the money calls. I do this to try to combat the decay element of the etf thats due to the roll up
in the underlying futures contracts (if anyone wants a further explanation please ask).Natgas is beginning to look attractive and although i would rather cut off my thumbs than be long that pig ung i do think there are decent ways to play it in the exploration and
distribution space. I am long rgp(regency energy). Mcd bounced of a trend line and 50 day ma today and i find that encouraging so i will stay with longs there as well. For tomorrow,as i said before i am on high alert for the correction. If the sp futures stay above 1329 i
will stay reasonably confident and continue to look for good bets in individual names. But if that level gives i may get out of everything and get short. have a great night jim
On nat gas ... how do you view the MLPs? That derivative work? Didn't seem directly linked when NG was plummeting.
ReplyDeleteWhat ticker do you use to play volatility?
ReplyDeleteto play vol i usually use the vxx etf...i wrote a blog post on how i trade it titled volatility trade if u want to take a look...
ReplyDelete